New marriage map shows where young Americans are most likely to wed

The Institute for Family Studies released an interactive county-by-county map tracking marriage rates for adults 22 to 39 across the U.S. The data shows sharp regional gaps, with the highest rates concentrated in parts of the interior and South, while some large coastal cities stand out among older young adults.

Why it matters: - The new map gives a county-level view of where young Americans are actually getting married, not just where they live. - The data highlights sharp geographic differences in marriage odds for adults ages 22 to 39. - The findings could reshape how researchers, policymakers and young adults think about marriage markets in the U.S.

What happened: - The Institute for Family Studies released The Marriage Map, an interactive tool covering marriage rates for young adults ages 22 to 39 by county across the United States. - The map is available at GoGetMarried.org. - The accompanying report, Mapping Marriage in America: Where Young Adults Get Married Most, is authored by Brad Wilcox, Wendy Wang and Kenneth Burchfiel. - The release cited Provo, Utah, where 13.2% of never-before-married young adults tied the knot last year, versus Newark, New Jersey, where the rate was 2.7%.

The details: - Users can filter the map by age group. - Users can also layer in predictors of marriage rates, including the ratio of single employed men to single women, income, education, religious affiliation and voting patterns. - For adults ages 22 to 29, the highest marriage rates are concentrated in the interior rather than the coasts. - States and regions highlighted for higher marriage rates include Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee and Kentucky. - The report also points to a band stretching from Panama City, Florida, to Fort Wayne, Indiana. - For adults in their thirties, the pattern shifts, with higher marriage rates showing up in large cities such as Los Angeles, New York and Chicago. - The underlying report says the ratio of single, full-time-employed men to single women is one of the strongest predictors of whether young women in a region marry. - The report says religious affiliation as a whole does not show a strong correlation with marriage rates for young adults. - The report says the best predictor of a region's marriage rate for young women is how many other young women there are already married. - The map is based on 2020-2024 American Community Survey data, plus county-level data from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census and the MIT Election Lab.

Between the lines: - The data challenges the idea that the biggest cities are the best place to find a spouse in one’s 20s. - Brad Wilcox said young adults often move toward big cities for career opportunities, but people with a marriage mindset may want to look to Middle America or the South. - Wilcox summarized the pattern as: “Nashville, not New York; Fort Wayne, not L.A.”

What's next: - The Institute for Family Studies is positioning the map as an ongoing research and public education tool for people thinking seriously about marriage and family formation. - The Get Married Initiative, directed by Brad Wilcox, is expected to continue providing research and resources tied to marriage and family formation.

The bottom line: - Young adults do not marry at the same rate across the U.S., and the new map shows those differences are strongly shaped by geography, age and local labor-market conditions.